Predicting the future....
From time to time, some businesses have to make decisions based on predictions about what is going to happen in a particular technology area. It may therefore be of interest to some that the Swedish Patent office has developed a tool for analysing the progress of a particular technology area based on patent activity in that area.
The analysis tool uses a “life cycle approach” to analyse and predict the progress of a technology. According to “the life cycle approach”, the development of a technology is expected to follow an S-curve, as illustrated in Figure 1. After an emerging phase, the technology undergoes a growth phase before it reaches maturity and then saturation. The study by the Swedish Patent Office analyses the number of patent applications in a particular area of technology to determine how far along the S-curve a specific technology has travelled.
Using patent classifications, the tool can be used to visualise not only the development within a specific technology but also how different sub-technologies have progressed in relation to others within that area. Using advanced mathematical methods, the PRV claims that they can find a suitable S-curve that fits the statistical data and can predict based on the S-curve where in the life cycle a technology can currently be found. As an example, Figure 2 shows the cumulative number of applications in the area of wind power generation. Based on the simulated S-curve, it can be seen that the technology has penetrated the market but has yet to reach maturity.
The analysis tool has been named ForeseekerTM and an analysis using the tool can be requested by contacting the Swedish Patent Office at prv.se
According to the Swedish Patent Office, the study has “shown the importance of patent information and how it can be used as a tool for business intelligence and technology forecasting”. However, they emphasise that strategic R&D investment decisions should be based on market demands in addition to patent data and other technological considerations.
Fig 1. Expected development of patenting activity over the technological life cycle and corresponding S-curve
Fig.2 Development of patent activity in the area of wind power and corresponding S-curve
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